Less than a week ahead of the mayoral election, the predicted winner is more unclear than ever. A new poll indicates voters are equally split between incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and Councilmember Nithya Raman.
The University of California, Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies conducted the poll in collaboration with the L.A. Times. Of the 2,197 likely voters who responded, 40% said they would vote for Raman, another 40% for Bass, and 19% are still undecided, with a 3% margin of error.
The election seems to be in dead heat, as Bass’ likelihood of being reelected soared during these weeks. A September poll also conducted by UC Berkeley and the L.A. had found 38% of voters in favor of Raman with 28% in favor of Bass.
This sudden shift in favor of Bass could be indicative that her campaign’s recent efforts have been successful. Bass has moved to a more aggressive approach to this election cycle, openly criticizing Raman through statements as well as political ads.
“It’s certainly a breath of fresh air for Bass to see the race close. She’ll probably feel the campaign is having the effect she wants it to have, which is to put more focus on Raman and put Raman on the defensive,” said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, according to the L.A. Times report.
DiCamillo also said this major shift happened largely because of conservative voters who had previously voted for Spencer Pratt in the primary election deciding to vote for Bass.
Although both Raman and Bass align themselves with the Democratic Party, Raman’s efforts with the Democratic Socialists of America and her positions on issues such as policing may land her left of Bass in the political spectrum in the eyes of voters.
Raman led the Latino vote substantially back in September with 45% in contrast to Bass’ 21%. However, this recent poll has shifted things for Raman, as she now holds 43% of the Latino likely vote and Bass jumped to 40%.
When it comes to Black voters, their support for Bass also increased drastically from 48% in September all the way up to 71%. Raman’s support from Black voters decreased from 20% to 13%.
The poll also asked voters how they viewed both mayors, and the results also favored Bass when compared to the previous poll. Bass’ unfavourability in the eyes of voters went up one percentage point from 64% in September to 65%, while Raman’s went up from 39% to 49%.
Voters also voted on what they think should be the top priorities of the city. “Reduce homeless encampments” led the poll with 43% of the vote, with “Ensure public safety” and “Build more affordable housing” tying with 29%, followed by “Protect immigrant communities” and Balance the city budget.”
After weeks of heated debates and ideological attacks from both campaigns, Angelenos seem to be more split than ever between the two candidates for the Los Angeles Mayor position.
The general election will take place on November 3. You can find your nearest voting center here.
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